Every March, zillionaire Warren Buffet makes the safest, but most alluring money-making proposition of the year.
This time around, he’s offered $1 million to any employee of Berkshire Hathaway who can correctly predict the outcome of every first round game.
Chances are slim, but the chances are much better than the proposal Buffet usually makes, which is a perfect bracket for $10 million.
DePaul Unviersity math professor Jeff Bergen breaks down the odds of a perfect bracket:
The result? Incredibly discouraging.
We have about a 1 in 4,294,967,296 chance without using any data or prior knowledge when making the selection. This amounts to a coin flip for every game. Of course, that isn’t how we make our decision.
In fact, selecting the higher seed to win every game improves odds drastically to 1 in 17,000.
The news isn’t good. There isn’t a special formula that can help improve the chances of selecting the winner of each game and helping you snatch up any of the big bucks offered around this time of year.
Those odds again: 1 in 4,294,967,296.
In the words of Lloyd from Dumb and Dumber: “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”