College Football Playoff Bid Stealers More Likely to Return Than Expected

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The 2024-25 college football season delivered some unforgettable storylines that kept fans glued to their screens each Saturday. While the usual powerhouses battled for national championship glory, it was the unexpected playoff crashers who really captured our imagination in the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff format.

Nobody saw Arizona State, Clemson, or Boise State making serious playoff noise back in August. Yet there they were when the brackets were released, not just happy to be invited but putting legitimate scares into some of college football’s elite programs during their playoff matchups.

We’ve seen this movie before in college football — a team catches lightning in a bottle for one magical season before crashing back to earth the following year. The transfer portal swallows up talent, NFL dreams lure away stars, and that perfect chemistry just vanishes.

The Numbers Don’t Lie: These Underdogs Are Built to Last

Here’s the thing though — the data suggests these three programs might not be one-hit wonders after all.

Despite losing star running backs Cam Skattebo (Arizona State) and Ashton Jeanty (Boise State) to the NFL Draft, both programs appear positioned for sustained success. The secret? They’re keeping almost everybody else.

Bill Connelly of ESPN crunched the numbers, and all three of our Cinderella stories rank in the top 10 nationally for returning production. That’s a massive indicator for teams hoping to build on breakthrough seasons.

Clemson sits at the very top of the list.

After knocking off SMU in the ACC championship game and grabbing the final playoff spot as the No. 12 seed, the Tigers are bringing back a whopping 81% of their production. Quarterback Cade Klubnik returns for what should be his defining season in Death Valley, surrounded by one of college football’s most explosive young receiving corps.

Kenny Dillingham’s Arizona State squad might be even more intriguing. Remember when Big 12 media picked them dead last in preseason polls? All they did was win the conference and lock up the No. 4 seed in the playoff. The Sun Devils are returning 79% of their production — second nationally behind only Clemson.

The Sam Leavitt-Jordyn Tyson connection should terrorize Big 12 defenses next season. Don’t forget that Tyson missed ASU’s playoff loss to Texas with an injury — a massive blow that likely changed the outcome of that game.

Yes, Boise State is losing Heisman finalist Ashton Jeanty — arguably the most dominant player in college football last season.

That’s a massive hole to fill, but don’t write off the Broncos just yet. They’re bringing back 69% of their production (ninth nationally), which should give them enough firepower to remain the class of the Mountain West.

The college football landscape changes rapidly these days with the transfer portal and NIL reshaping rosters every offseason. But when you return this much talent from teams that already proved they can win at the highest level? That’s a recipe for sustained success.

Don’t be shocked when you see these three programs back in the playoff hunt next December. The numbers suggest these underdogs aren’t going anywhere.

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