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College football’s playoff debate has a simple answer that nobody wants to admit: win your games.
That’s the bottom line, even if coaches would rather talk about committee bias, conference politics and automatic bids. Oklahoma’s Brent Venables isn’t shying away from it, though. He said as much this week at SEC Meetings, and it’s worth paying attention to.
The sport is moving toward a future where conferences are lobbying hard for guaranteed entry and protected spots, trying to cut down on the uncertainty that comes with a room full of people making subjective judgments in December. That frustration is understandable. Nobody wants a 10-2 season turned into a debate show argument.
But here’s the thing. Even with a bigger bracket, automatic qualifiers and more at-large spots, the teams that keep showing up in the playoff conversation are the ones doing what they’re supposed to do on Saturdays.
“If you want to be in complete, total control, win your games. It worked in our favor in November, where we had a really challenging last four games, and we took care of business. And that ultimately was a separator for us to be able to get into the playoff, where had we not done that, had we not gone 4-0, we probably didn’t deserve to be in. I’m good with that.” — Brent Venables, SEC Meetings
Oklahoma’s 2024 season is the proof. The Sooners were sitting at 7-2 and ranked 12th in the first CFP rankings, with virtually zero margin for error the rest of the way. They then beat fourth-ranked Alabama, No. 22 Missouri, and LSU to close out the regular season, earning themselves a first-round home game in the process.
The CFP selection committee isn’t perfect. No system with human beings involved ever will be. One year, strength of schedule is the dominant factor. The next, head-to-head results become everything. There’s no clean formula, and there never will be.
The teams left out arguing on Selection Sunday are usually the same ones pointing to a September upset, a missed shot at a ranked opponent, or a late-season collapse that cost them control of their own fate.
That point hits harder when you realize playoff access has never been easier to reach than it is right now.
More spots mean a second loss isn’t necessarily fatal the way it used to be. They mean teams outside the traditional power structure actually have real pathways into the bracket. What expansion doesn’t do is guarantee anyone a free pass from disappointment.
“Don’t be on the wrong side of it in that one game. That’s what I would say. Don’t leave it to the officials to make a decision in the game, don’t leave it up to anybody else to win your games. You’re not going to sit there and piss and moan and complain when you have an opportunity to do it on the field. So, maybe easier — and again, I have, you’re talking about somebody that has compassion and empathy for people who are on the wrong side of it and had a fantastic year, and for whatever reason, they didn’t get voted in to (it). I see it both ways.” — Venables
Venables acknowledged the legitimate case for 10-win Vanderbilt not getting in last season. Texas coach Steve Sarkisian made his own argument that his three-loss Longhorns deserved a bid based on schedule strength. Neither situation has a clean answer.
There’s no perfect system.
A Big Ten contender can’t expect preferential treatment after losing the games that matter most. And a Group of Five champion still has to prove it belongs by stacking wins. That’s where Venables’ point lands with the most weight. While administrators and commissioners negotiate formats and access, the answer for most programs hasn’t changed: stop worrying about the committee. Stop worrying about how many bids your conference gets. Win enough games and none of it matters.
Expansion is coming, one way or another
The movement has real momentum now. The Big Ten and ACC were already pushing for a larger bracket; now the Big 12 is on board too, after its coaches unanimously backed a 24-team format this week and floated the idea of adding a 10th conference game to strengthen schedules. Several SEC coaches have said publicly they’re fine with an expanded bracket, even if SEC commissioner Greg Sankey has been pumping the brakes on any immediate move.
Venables thinks it’s inevitable, even though he’s comfortable with the current setup.
“It ain’t going to stay the same. At some point in time, it’s going to change. I don’t know when that is, but we’re 12 now. I’m great at 12. I was great with four, and I liked the BCS model. You know, one thing I liked about the BCS model or just when you had two teams that were, all of a sudden, they were chosen for that — the bowl system was a fantastic thing. You still could have a fantastic year with a real, pure bowl system. There’s more finality.” — Venables
The case for expansion isn’t complicated. More teams means more perceived access, more meaningful late-season games, and, most importantly, more revenue. Conference commissioners aren’t in the business of shrinking opportunities for their members; they’re trying to lock down as many postseason pathways as possible, especially in an era where conference strength and television value are tied directly together.
A bigger field also serves as insurance. The larger the bracket, the less likely a conference’s top teams get left out after a messy selection process. That’s a pitch administrators can take back to university presidents, athletic directors, and TV partners.
The resistance is real too. Critics argue the regular season loses meaning. Others think a bigger bracket rewards teams that haven’t earned a shot at a title. Those concerns are unlikely to stop anything, though.
College football’s power brokers have spent the last decade proving that more games, more television windows, and more postseason access tend to win out every time. With public support growing among the key stakeholders and very few financial reasons to hold the line, the sport appears headed toward another expansion cycle sooner rather than later.
The details will be debated. The number of teams will be negotiated. But the direction is obvious.
And through all of it, Venables’ point stands. The playoff may be getting bigger. The politics may keep shifting. But the oldest truth in college football hasn’t changed: take care of your Saturdays, and the rest usually takes care of itself.
