While Wisconsin’s loss to Maryland isn’t a knockout blow to the Badgers’ chances at a number 1 seed, it takes them out of the drivers’ seat. Kentucky, Duke, and Virginia have clearly separated themselves from the pack in terms of resume strength, leaving only one top seed up for grabs. With Gonzaga blowing through the West Coast Conference in typical Zags fashion, Wisconsin was already in a cross-country beauty pageant for the final number 1 seed. If the Badgers still have hopes for getting a top seed come Selection Sunday, they will not only need to run the table through the Big 10 tournament, but they’ll need some losses from the teams in front of them in the pecking order. The cases for Kentucky, Duke, and Virginia over Wisconsin are fairly obvious. Still, people may scoff at the notion of putting Gonzaga over Frank Kaminsky and co. Look closer, however, and the debate is more complex than it may seem.
The Case for the Badgers
To be fair, Wisconsin has done just about as well as anyone could have predicted this season–and has looked damn impressive in the process. The 80-70 home loss to Duke not withstanding, Bo Ryan’s team has navigated a tough schedule very well (the Badgers’ loss to Rutgers will probably have minimal importance to the committee given the fact that Frank Kaminsky didn’t play). Kaminsky is in the top two in the Player of the Year race, Sam Dekker is a matchup nightmare, and the Badgers’ depth and execution are matched by few–if any–teams in the entire country. With wins over quality teams like Oklahoma, Georgetown, Iowa (twice) and others, Wisconsin has looked every bit the part of a top seed. But simply beating NCAA Tournament teams isn’t going to impress the committee enought to bump a truly impressive Zags team.
Why Favor the Zags?
The case against Gonzaga as a top seed is the same as it’s always been.
“They don’t play anybody worth mentioning the last half of the season.”
“Their best win is close loss (to Arizona 66-63 on the road in overtime.)”
“There are just too many other teams with more quality wins.”
All of these points are accurrate.
But the eye-test still plays an important role in NCAA Tournament seeding, and the Zags pass that with flying colors. The Bulldogs have two legit stars in the sweet-stroking duo of Kevin Pangos and Kyle Wiltjer–not to mention a seemingly endless supply of skilled bigs. This is a team no one wants to face come March. I know, I know, “but who have they played?” While Gonzaga’s schedule is normally the weak point of its tournament resume, this year is unique.
The biggest difference between this season and the previous few is the lack of depth at the top of the Power 5 conferences. Wisconsin is in the unfortunate situation of having their best team in years during a down year in the Big 10. Instead of having top-10 tilts against the likes of Michigan State and Indiana–games which the Badgers normally use to bolster their resume for a top seed–Wisconsin has entered every Big 10 game as the prohibitive favorite, meaning the best they could do is simply hold serve. Without wins over top-10 teams which could offset losses like the one the Badgers suffered Tuesday night, the committee has to change its method of differentiation. This year, it’s not as much about who deserves a top seed more–it’s about who deserves it less.
The Skinny
Unfortunately for Badger fans, the committee can only go on what it sees, and Gonzaga appears to be the biggest beneficiary. Playing in the Big 10, even in a down year, you have to be ready to play every game. In the West Coast Conference? Not so much. Bo Ryan’s team is simply in a position where their opportunities to impress (Duke) have already passed, and all the only significant thing they can do is disappoint. How can Wisconsin make the leap over a Gonzaga or a Virginia by playing the likes of Iowa and Illinois every week? A loss to a Maryland team currently ranked 14th in the country is far from a typical bad loss–but it’s still a loss that Gonzaga doesn’t have.
Without a substantial difference between these two teams when judging by the eye-test, the committee is forced to look at their resumes and decide: which of these resumes looks more like it could belong to a number 1 seed? At this point, the answer is Gonzaga.
*Section Photo to Mike McGinnis, Getty Images; Featured Photo (above) credit to Casey Sapio, USA TODAY Sports
