March Madness. It’s that time of year again, and who doesn’t love a good upset? Alongside the feel good story of a team pulling off a David versus Goliath-esque upset comes bragging rights and national headlines. The NCAA Tournament, which expanded to a 64 team field in 1985 and then a 68 team field in 2011 is without a doubt the best stage in college athletics for a small school to knock off a bigger opponent.
Since the inception of the current format, not a single No. 16 seed has ever beaten a No. 1 seed. As a matter of fact, No. 1 seeds are 104-0 in the first round. If you’re looking for a true upset, look no further than the No. 12 vs No. 5 seeding line. No. 12 seeds own a 44-76 record against No. 5 seeds. Furthermore, a No. 12 seed has defeated a No. 5 seed in every NCAA Tournament since 2008. Over the past 3 tournaments, No. 12 seeds are 8-4 versus No. 5 seeds. Just last year, No. 12’s went 3-1 versus No. 5 seeds. Below we take a look at this years games in order of favorability.
South Region
No. 12 Stephen F. Austin vs. No. 5 Utah
7:27 p.m. Thursday in Portland, Oregon (truTV)
S.F. Austin RPI/BPI/KenPom rankings: 33/53/35.
Stephen F. Austin (29-4), champions of the Southland Conference can score at a high rate. The Lumberjacks rank 1st in assists per game, at a whopping 17.8 dimes per game. They also rank 9th nationally in points per possession at 1.16 in each of their trips to the offensive end. With an RPI of 33, this team is certainly worthy of recognition. Look no further than last years tournament when SFA defeated Shaka Smart’s VCU Rams in the first round. In case you were wondering what seed Stephen F. Austin was last year, you guessed it, a 12 seed.
Midwest Region
No. 12 Buffalo vs. No. 5 West Virginia
2:10 p.m. Friday in Columbus, Ohio (TNT)
Buffalo RPI/BPI/KenPom rankings: 28/55/54.
One of the greatest stories in college basketball season this year is Buffalo (23-9) from the Mid American Conference. Coached by former Duke legend Bobby Hurley Jr., the Bulls are experiencing March Madness for the first time ever. Hurley comes from coaching royalty. His father, Bob Hurley Sr. is widely considered the best high school basketball coach to ever live. His brother Danny turned Wagner College from a 5-26 to 25-6 team in two seasons before being hired as head coach at The University of Rhode Island. Bobby, a two time NCAA Champion and NBA lottery pick knows what it takes to win.
This year, his Bulls are poised to make history. Led by Junior forward Justin Moss, the MAC player of the year averaging 18.4 ppg and 9.4 rbg, the Bulls will challenge the Mountaineers on the offensive and defensive ends. Buffalo was competitive in losses at Kentucky and Wisconsin. “We’re not coming to Columbus just to play a game, we’re preparing for WVU with the mindset of defeating them” says Hurley.
East Region
No. 12 Wyoming vs. No. 5 Northern Iowa
1:40 p.m. Friday in Seattle, Washington (TBS)
Wyoming RPI/BPI/KenPom rankings: 71/102/102.
If you’re a stats guru, you would stay away from Wyoming. However, the Cowboys (25-9) are playing their best basketball of the year. They upset Boise State and San Diego State to win the Mountain West Tournament. Led by Larry Nance Jr. at 16.1 ppg and 7.2 rpg, the Cowboys are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance in thirteen years. Another player of note for Larry Shyatt’s Cowboys is Josh Adams, who took Mountain West Tournament MVP honors last week. With a very good Northern Iowa team looming, Wyoming will need to Nance Jr. and Adams to play their best basketball of the season to have a chance of knocking off UNI.
West Region
No. 12 Wofford vs. No. 5 Arkansas
9:50 p.m. Thursday in Jacksonville, Florida (TNT)
Wofford RPI/BPI/KenPom rankings: 47/92/90.
The Wofford Terriers (28-6) are one of the most accomplished low major teams in recent years. After winning the Southern Conference, the Terriers secured their fourth NCAA Tournament appearance in six years. Thirteenth year Head Coach, Mike Young has guard play that rivals many of the stronger teams in the field. The Terriers have a daunting task ahead of them in Arkansas, who lost to Kentucky in the SEC Championship. Will they be dancing the night away in Spartanburg, SC on Thursday? If so, Wofford is going to need to play its best basketball of the year.
*Section Photo credit to David Purdy, Getty Images; Featured Photo (above) credit to Brad Penner, USA Today Sports
