Michigan State vs. Duke preview and prediction

As the surprise team of the Final Four, the No. 7 Michigan State Spartans are in a position to shock the sports world. Tomorrow night, they are set to take on the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils for a spot in this year’s NCAA Tournament Final.

Michigan State has a lot of momentum at its back heading into this game, what with the team pulling off a stunning overtime win against the tough defense of the Louisville Cardinals in the Elite Eight. Thanks to a strong attack in transition as well as phenomenal on-ball defense, the Spartans held Louisville to just 36 percent shooting and kept the rebounding game neck-in-neck, with each team pulling down 41 boards apiece.

Guards Denzel Valentine and Travis Trice combined for 32 of Michigan State’s 76 points, and them being the hungrier team makes it possible that Duke could finally run into the type of scrappy squad that has dogged them in tournaments past.

But let’s not forget that this is a Duke team coached by Hall of Famer Mike Krzyzewski, the man with the most career wins in Division I basketball history and who is looking for his fifth championship with the program he has coached for 35 years. Moreover, from guards Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook to forward Justise Winslow to center Jahlil Okafor, this Blue Devils squad is stacked from top to bottom and ranked fourth in the nation in scoring (80.6 PPG) and third in overall field-goal percentage (.502).

Though Michigan State proved that it could run and play well in the game against Louisville, Duke is a team that has made its bones as a run-and-gun squad under the man known as Coach K.

That isn’t to say that MSU is absolutely screwed going into this game. Head coach Tom Izzo is no Mike Krzyzewski, but has still won a championship and made seven Final Fours in 20 years coaching the Spartans.

However, the team is not without flaws, and said issues could prove to be a problem against a team as deep as Duke.

First off, after losing 6-foot-10 Adreian Payne to the NBA after last season, the Spartans don’t really have a strong enough big man who can stand and bang in the paint with the 6-foot-11 Okafor (17.7 PPG, 9.0 RPG). Gaven Schilling and Matt Costello provide a pair of big bodies, with each man standing 6-foot-9, but keep in mind that Spartans’ leading rebounder Branden Dawson (9.1 RPG) is only 6-foot-6.

Sure, he hasn’t let his lack of size stop him in the tournament thus far, pulling down 9.2 per game in the big dance, but Okafor is a different kind of opponent who works the low post with ease.

This is also bound to be an incredibly physical game on both ends, which means lots of free throws. Michigan State has had an incredibly tough time in that department, shooting just 62.5 percent from the charity stripe all season long.

Moreover, their offensive attack relies way too heavily on Trice and Valentine who, despite averaging 19.8 and 13.2 points per game in the tournament, are shooting just 42.5 and 35.7 percent from the floor, respectively.

The duo relies way too heavily on three-pointers and jump shots and if Michigan State’s plan is to ultimately get into a shooting contest with a Duke team whose bread and butter is a run-and-gun game, the game will quickly become a blowout, and not in a good way for the Spartans.

And despite the clear advantages that Duke has, the experts only have the Blue Devils as five-and-a-half point favorites.

This could be a testament to the momentum of the Spartans, but the fact of the matter is that Duke is still a far superior team, both in talent and overall depth.

That said, if you ask this writer what will happen tomorrow evening, it’s going to be raining Blue in Indianapolis as Duke punches a ticket to yet another championship game.

Be sure to turn on TBS at 6:09 (ET) for what’s certain to be a fun game to watch!

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*Featured Photo (above) credit to Sports Illustrated/USA Today Sports

Wisconsin vs. Kentucky preview and predictions
Wisconsin vs. Kentucky preview and predictions