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For the very first time, the Penn State Nittany Lions are going to be part of the College Football Playoff! This is super exciting because they were one of the best teams that never got to play in it before. Thanks to more teams being allowed in this year, Penn State has a great chance. They’re among eight teams with a 99% or better chance of making it.
Penn State’s playoff chances are at 99.6%, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
These are the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings heading into championship weekend.
- Oregon Ducks (12-0)
- Texas Longhorns (11-1)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1)
- Georgia Bulldogs (10-2)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2)
- Tennessee Volunteers (10-2)
- SMU Mustangs (11-1)
- Indiana Hoosiers (11-1)
- Boise State Broncos (11-1)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3)
- Miami Hurricanes (10-2)
- Ole Miss Rebels (9-3)
- South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3)
- Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2)
- Iowa State Cyclones (10-2)
- Clemson Tigers (9-3)
- BYU Cougars (10-2)
- Missouri Tigers (9-3)
- UNLV Rebels (10-2)
- Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3)
- Syracuse Orange (9-3)
- Colorado Buffaloes (9-3)
- Army Black Knights (10-1)
- Memphis Tigers (10-2)
Based on Tuesday night’s rankings, here is what the playoff picture looks like heading into this week.
- Oregon Ducks (12-0) (Projected Big Ten champion)
- Texas Longhorns (11-1) (Projected SEC champion)
- SMU Mustangs (11-1) (Projected ACC champion)
- Boise State Broncos (11-1) (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (Projected national independent at-large)
- Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) (Projected SEC runner-up)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
- Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (Projected SEC at-large)
- Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (Projected SEC at-large)
- Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) (Projected Big 12 champion)
And from that, these would be the first four teams out heading into the conference championships.
- 13. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) (ACC)
- 14. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) (SEC)
- 15. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) (SEC)
- 16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2) (Projected Big 12 runner-up)
The Nittany Lions are tied with Tennessee for the sixth-best odds to make it into the playoffs. Besides Penn State and Tennessee, other teams likely to get in include Georgia, Indiana, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, and Texas. Among these, Georgia, Oregon, Penn State, and Texas might still earn first-round byes.
As we approach championship weekend, here are the latest College Football Playoff rankings. At the top are the undefeated Oregon Ducks with a 12-0 record. Following them closely are the Texas Longhorns at 11-1 and then Penn State also at 11-1. Notre Dame and Georgia round out the top five spots.
Moving on to what this means for the playoffs: The current picture shows Oregon as the projected Big Ten champion. Texas is expected to win the SEC, while SMU and Boise State are favorites for their respective conferences. Meanwhile, Penn State is seen as a potential runner-up in their conference.
If Penn State loses to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship, how far would they fall? Even if they lose by just one point, they’d drop from their current No. 5 spot but remain in playoff contention.
Assuming all favorites win this weekend, here’s what the playoff field could look like: Oregon would stay on top as Big Ten champions with a perfect record. Texas would follow as SEC champions, and SMU and Boise State would secure their spots too. Notre Dame and Ohio State would fill in some of the remaining positions.
Penn State might slide behind Notre Dame due to not having any standout wins despite two losses. Even though Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois, their victory over Army stands out more than anything Penn State has achieved so far.
The committee wants to avoid repeat matchups from earlier games in the same venues. So having Penn State face Tennessee as an eighth seed against a ninth seed helps prevent such scenarios. This setup isn’t flawless but aims to satisfy most fans.
This arrangement could slightly disadvantage Notre Dame since they’d have to host Alabama as a lower seed compared to their ranking.
