With all apologies to brain surgeons and rocket scientists, earning a living as a sports gambler in Las Vegas is one of the toughest professions in the world. After taking a journey to the land of bright lights and legal gambling, I felt inspired to share what I feel are some of the best over/under bets for the college football season.
Florida Gators- Over/Under- 8 Wins (-160)
We all know that last year was an abject disaster for Will Muschamp and the Gators. They lost their best player in Dominique Easley and the offense was simply atrocious. This year should be somewhat of a bounceback for Florida as Muschamp is certainly coaching for his job and they have to have more injury luck than a season ago. Still, there is a much better chance the Gators go 7-5 or worse than 9-3 or better.
Although Florida will likely get off to a solid start by winning their first three games at home against Idaho, Eastern Michigan and Kentucky respectively, they will then enter one of the toughest stretches of schedule of any team in the nation. Florida takes a trip to Tuscaloosa to take on Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide in a game where the Gators will be double-digit underdogs. After a bye week the team takes a trip to Rocky Top with a date against what could be one of the surprise teams in the country in Butch Jones’ Tennessee Vols. Florida then returns home to take on LSU and Missouri in consecutive weeks. After a bye they play a neutral site game against Georgia in Jacksonville. The Gators then travel to Nashville to take on Vanderbilt before coming back home to match up against Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina Gamecocks as well as their cupcake game against Eastern Kentucky. Florida finishes the season in Tallahassee to take on the national champion Florida State Seminoles.
It seems nearly impossible that Florida can navigate that schedule with just three losses or fewer so the under seems like a great wager.
Tennessee Volunteers- Over/Under- 5.5 Wins (-115)
We’re going to stay in the SEC and discuss the Tennessee Volunteers. The Vols have a solid returning defensive line and they could be one of the biggest surprises of the college football season (what we mean by surprise is the team will compete for a decent, December bowl game.)
Needing to win just six games to be bowl eligible and more importantly winning the over seems to be very attainable for the Vols. Tennessee opens up with what should be a pair of victories at home against Utah State and Arkansas State. Tennessee then takes to the road as they travel to Norman, Oklahoma to take on Bob Stoops and the Sooners before heading down to Athens, Georgia to matchup against the Bulldogs, a winnable game. Tennessee returns home with dates against Florida and Chattanooga, two games where they will likely be favored. The Vols then have a difficult three-game stretch at Ole Miss and South Carolina with a home game against Alabama sandwiched in. The final three games of the season will make or break Tennessee in terms of bowl eligibility. The Vols close with very winnable games at home against Kentucky and Missouri before finishing the regular season on the road at perennial doormat Vanderbilt.
Barring unforeseen injuries, there are only three games that Tennessee can’t win- at Oklahoma, at Ole Miss and Alabama. Tennessee will win it’s three remaining non-conference games (Utah State, Arkansas and Chattanooga) and it’s up to them to find 3 wins in conference against Georgia, Florida (home), South Carolina, Kentucky (home), Missouri (home) and Vanderbilt. The over is a solid wager.
Ohio State- Over/Under- 10.5 wins (-150)
Sure, the Buckeyes finished 2013 on a sour note losing to Michigan State and then to Clemson in the Orange Bowl, but Urban Meyer’s team appears to be locked and loaded for another national title run in 2014. Ohio State returns Heisman candidate Braxton Miller and they should breeze through a classic Urban Meyer non-conference pillow fight.
With an over/under of 10.5, the Buckeyes are allowed to slip up once, but not twice. Their schedule will cater to that.
Ohio State opens up with a road game at the Naval Academy before returning to the Horseshoe to take on Virginia Tech, Kent State and Cincinnati to finish the non-conference slate. The not-so-tough B1G Ten schedule begins with a trip to Maryland followed by a home date against former AAC doormat Rutgers. The Buckeyes then have their first losable game at Beaver Stadium against James Franklin’s Penn State Nittany Lions. Ohio State’s trap game is fortunately (for them) against an Illinois team who is unable to set a trap. The Buckeyes then have their toughest game of the season against the reigning conference and Rose Bowl champion Michigan State Spartans, in East Lansing. Ohio State then travels to Minnesota before returning home to take on Indiana and their rivalry game against “the school up North.
Barring an injury to Braxton Miller, Ohio State has just three losable games- at Penn State, at Michigan State and Minnesota. It’s safe to assume that with one of the best quarterbacks and head coaches in the nation, the Buckeyes will find a way to win two out of those three games and thus achieving the over.
