This summer the Mike & Mike radio show hosted a segment asking listeners what they would choose if they had the option to invest money in any of the major sports leagues right now. The leagues were treated as a stock, with the understanding that you can’t sell the league stock for 10 years. Drawing from that hypothetical, I chose the five college basketball programs that I would invest in, knowing I couldn’t sell them for five years. My decisions are relative to the current value of the teams (stock) compared to where I think it will be five years from now. These aren’t who I think will be the best five teams in five years, but rather who will make the largest growth.
Michigan Wolverines
It is well known that the glory days of Michigan basketball were in the early 90s during the years of the Fab 5. I’m not convinced, however, that the Wolverines program has hit their peak yet. The Fab 5 never won a Big Ten regular season title like John Beilein’s 2011, 2012 and 2014 teams. When Beilein started in 2007, the Wolverines were past the sanctions brought on by the Ed Martin scandal for a few years and he was given a fair chance to mold his own system. For the first time in almost 20 years, Michigan stayed in the Top 25 for the entire season and in 2012-13 they even spent time as the number one team. During the five years before Beilein arrived, the Wolverines struggled to put a competitive team on the court. Michigan has always recruited well in state but Beilein’s staff recently started to branch out into states highly-renowned for producing basketball players, such as Ohio and Indiana. He’s landed 4-star recruits like Trey Burke and Mitch McGary and 5-star recruits Glenn Robinson and Zak Irvin, the kind they weren’t attracting in previous years. Nothing is more appealing to high school recruits than seeing the chance to not only compete for championships but to make it to the NBA. In the past two years, Michigan has developed both Burke and Nik Stauskas into top-10 draft picks, and sent Tim Hardaway, McGary and Glenn Robinson pro as well.
Memphis Tigers
Success in Conference USA never translated into national success until John Calipari was hired by the Tigers. Calipari had a knack for recruiting notable athletes like Dajuan Wagner, Christopher Douglas-Roberts, Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans, which explains why he hired former assistant coach and current Memphis coach, Josh Pastner, who had been praised as an excellent recruiter at his previous location, Arizona, under Lute Olson. Luckily Memphis did not suffer much punishment when Calipari skipped town right before the Derrick Rose academic allegations and Pastner was able to continue recruiting top players to Memphis. Pastner managed to quiet critics this past season by beating five ranked teams and winning an NCAA tournament game. The Tigers are beginning their sixth season with Pastner and their second in the American Athletic Conference, but they won’t be fazed by the idea of a new conference since the ACC become home to seven former Conference USA teams seeking refuge in the wake of the Big East’s downfall. Now that the stench of Calipari’s wrongdoings in west Tennessee are starting to fade look for Pastner and the Tigers to find success in the near future.
Villanova Wildcats
Jay Wright revived Villanova’s status back to the level achieved by Rollie Massimino so many years ago. Once the Wildcats made it into the 2005 NCAA Tournament they were a fixture there for seven years. Wright mixed and matched under-recruited high school players and used a fast paced, yet harmonious philosophy to take Villanova as far as the Final Four in 2009. There were many senior departures after that season, and the team put a lot of trust in their upcoming recruiting class of three 5-star recruits, but an underachieving group steered the team into an under-500 record and a failure to earn a tournament bid. Since the 2009 Final Four run, Villanova hasn’t even made it back to the Sweet 16, but earning a number two seed in the NCAA Tournament this past year has given the Wildcats an even larger competitive advantage recruiting in the Philadelphia area. None of the other four teams in the Philadelphia Big Five have stepped up (nor has Penn State) and a weakened Big East conference will ease Villanova’s path in the coming years.
Stanford Cardinal
Stanford is coming off its best season under Johnny Dawkins in his sixth season as coach. The Cardinal upset both New Mexico and Andrew Wiggins’s Kansas Jayhawks. Stanford lost its identity after Trent Johnson resigned and the Lopez twins declared for the NBA Draft. Hiring Dawkins didn’t lead to instant success and his job was slightly in jeopardy entering last season. After last season’s accomplishments though, Stanford hit the trifecta of offseason hoops; having two players drafted, returning three starters, and welcoming one 5-star recruit and three 4-star recruits. The most prominent of these moves, in my opinion, was returning the starters (who accounted for 53% of the team’s scoring in 2013-14). All three players had the option to declare for the draft, or transfer under the graduation clause and play immediately at another school. Dawkins has instilled a new identity, one that recruits are starting to notice in a highly underrated basketball conference.
Saint Mary’s Gaels
Before coach Randy Bennett was hired, the Gaels had made the NCAA Tournament three times in their history. Since 2001, they have made it five times (with 3 NIT appearances). The expansion of the NCAA Tournament will substantially benefit Saint Mary’s as the increase in bids will help mid-major bubble teams who don’t win their conference tournament have a higher chance of being selected. Bennett’s claim to fame is recruiting players overseas, prominently in Australia. The trend began when point guard Adam Caporn, out of Australia’s international sports system, became a critical factor in the rebuilding process of the Gaels program. Bennett has signed 14 Australians since 2001, including NBA champion Patty Mills of the San Antonio Spurs. The trend of Australian basketball players in the NCAA has increased every season and the Gaels are expected to play five Australians in the upcoming one. The popularity of basketball in Australia is growing at the perfect time as Saint Mary’s tries to dethrone Gonzaga as top dog in the West Coast Conference. Andrew Bogut (2005) and Kyrie Irving (2012) were the first two Australian born players drafted number 1 and this past draft, Dante Exum, who was being recruited by Saint Mary’s before opting into the 2014 NBA Draft, was selected at number five. The success of basketball in Australia should directly correlate to the success of Saint Mary’s in the future.
Honorable mention:
- Minnesota Golden Gophers
- Oklahoma State
- Team hiring Shaka Smart
- Team hiring Tony Bennett
- Team hiring Mike Brey
Who I wish:
- Florida Gulf Coast – Dunk City will never run out of style
- George Mason – Anyone who beats Michigan State, UNC and UConn in the same tournament has a place in my heart
- Illinois – Some school should be able to reap the benefits of Chicago’s talent. Guys like Cliff Alexander, Jabari Parker, Derrick Rose, Anthony Davis, Dwyane Wade debate staying in-state but instead decided to travel elsewhere in search of greener pastures.