For some people, the NBA draft is just another day. For others, it’s a day to be glued to the TV and see which top college players will be selected by certain teams and in which order. For your good friend JB, it’s basically Sports World Christmas.
Yes, I am an NBA draft fanatic. Ever since I was in high school, I have been fascinated by college basketball and done my best to predict just which prospects will fall where, and just how well they’ll do on the professional level. How accurate have I been? Well, that’s another story.
But that doesn’t take away from the fact that this year’s draft class is incredibly deep, and picking where any player will end up, let alone ranking them, is going to be a doozy. Just the same, it’s that time of year, so this is necessary.
Here is my first Top 30 Big Board of 2015!
1. Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky, Freshman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIrvnqdx6Vs
The talk of the draft this year has been centered around one question: will Kentucky’s Karl-Anthony Towns or Duke’s Jahlil Okafor be picked first? The answer is simple: it depends on whoever the team with the first overall pick likes better.
However, I put more value on strong defensive skills and low-post abilities, so that puts Towns in my top spot. He has great size for the position at 7’0″, 250 pounds and works in the paint with the drive of someone much older than just 19 years of age. He only averaged 6.7 boards and 2.3 blocks in his lone season with the Wildcats, but put him in a system where he’ll be a key component on both sides of the court and those averages are sure to rocket upward.
2. Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, Guangdong Southern Tigers
Mudiay was set to play for Hall of Fame coach Larry Brown at Southern Methodist this past year, but he opted to play in China instead. He only appeared in 10 games for Guangdong, but managed to average 18 points, 6.3 boards and five assists per game over that stretch. Combined with his size and athleticism at 6’5″, 200 pounds, he has all the tools necessary to become a dynamic NBA point man, a la Russell Westbrook.
He’ll need some time adjust to the slower pace of the pros, but one thing is certain. Unlike a lot of this year’s prospects, Mudiay will be ready to contribute and make a significant impact on the court from Day 1.
3. D’Angelo Russell, PG, Ohio State, Freshman
Like Mudiay, Russell is a fine point man with size at 6’5″, 180 pounds and has a game that reminds me a lot of Russell Westbrook’s. However, unlike Mudiay, Russell still needs a little work.
He averaged 19.3 points, 5.7 rebounds and five assists per contest and shot 45 percent from the field as well as 41.1 percent from long range, but therein lies where Russell needs to improve his game. Despite his overall talent, he relies a bit too much on his jump shot and needs to pack on some pounds. Just the same, his talent is there and he has a good head on his shoulders, so expect Russell to become an impact guard with some coaching.
4. Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke, Freshman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ec–Gu9Ud7Y
Now, before I get any hate mail about how having Okafor any lower than second on the big board, hear me out. I think he’s incredibly talented and on draft day, he will be the first or second player selected. However, there are a few things that have caused him to drop in this writer’s opinion.
Sure, Okafor has the height at 6’11”, but the fact that he played the season at 270 pounds in a Duke system known for playing at a fast-pace makes me wonder if he can ever evolve from being a pick-and-roll big man into a strong interior presence with better explosiveness and a strong back to the basket game. Word on the street is that he’s slimming down, so maybe the Okafor we all know can exist is becoming a reality. Either way, he’s smart enough that he will find a way to succeed in whatever kind of system his future team runs.
5. Justise Winslow, SF, Duke, Freshman
Next up we have Okafor’s college teammate, and there is probably nobody in this year’s draft class with more poise than Winslow. For someone just 19 years old, he is very intelligent with his shot selection and shows incredible judgment on the defensive end of the court. He’s a bit small at 6’6″ 225 pounds, but has a fine shooter’s eye and moves up and down the court with great speed on a breakaway.
Like anyone in a draft class, Winslow will need some time to adjust to the pros and may struggle to find minutes at first. By mid-December, expect him to be a regular part of the rotation.
6. Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona, Freshman
Like Winslow, Johnson is an athletic forward who thrived in a run-and-gun system last year. This means that unless he’s drafted into a similar system, there’ll be a bit of an adjustment period. Just the same, he has a great basketball IQ and can succeed wherever he plays.
The tough part is determining just what kind of player Johnson will be in the NBA. Will he become a go-to guy, or will he be more of a defensive specialist and point forward like fellow Wildcat and current NBAer Andre Iguodala? He’ll need a year of coaching to learn his new role, but one thing is certain. Johnson can play.
7. Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Baloncesto Sevila, Spain
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnfpmCpa3PA
Porzingis is probably the best draft prospect you’ve never heard of. He has enough athleticism to play both the 3 and 4 positions, and can be explosive both as a defender and a scoring threat.
Of course, like any international prospect, Porzingis is going to have a hard time for a couple of reasons: the European game is different than that of the NBA, and international prospects haven’t exactly fared well in the NBA as of late. Just ask guys like Jan Vesely, whose game in Europe was very similar to that of Porzingis’s.
The Latvian is also way too skinny at 7’1″, 220 pounds, so he’ll need time to bulk up. Fortunately, whichever team drafts him will have the option of stashing him in Europe for a year or two, so he wouldn’t be a total waste as a lottery pick.
8. Mario Hezonja, SF, Barcelona, Spain
Next up we have another international prospect in the 20-year-old Croatian Hezonja, who has made a name for himself as an excellent wing player in Spain. He’s a little skinny at 6’8″, 200 pounds, but has shown that he can nail threes and drive to the basket with ease.
Hezonja’s biggest problem is that he plays with a chip on his shoulder. While that can be considered a good thing in some cases, he plays with a fiery and cocky nature that makes his attitude a bit of a question mark and sometimes results in bad decision making and stupid fouls. He’s incredibly talented and can easily make an impact on the next level, but he’ll likely need another year in Europe or maybe a year in the D-League.
In spite of all of those flaws, Hezonja is still probably one of the better athletes in this year’s draft.
9. Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas, Sophomore
At 6’11”, 240 pounds, Portis definitely has NBA size. Just how he’ll use it on the professional level remains to be seen. This young man averaged 17.5 points and 8.9 rebounds while shooting 54 percent from the field, and he can stand and bang in the paint as well as make jump shots. He is a leader on the court and took a huge step forward in his sophomore season.
Just what role he’ll play depends on the team that drafts him and how he’s used, but he has a strong motor and once he puts on some muscle and becomes more explosive, he’ll be a near-unstoppable force on the hardwood.
10. Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky, Junior
I look at Cauley-Stein and I see a player who will be on the court for one reason: man the paint with authority and play incredible defense. He averaged 2.2 blocks per game in three years with the Wildcats and has great size at 7’0″ 240 pounds.
His offensive game is raw and he’ll need to up his production in the rebounding department, but Cauley-Stein is a fine big man out of a great program with a winning culture, and he’ll soon be a leader on the court. He won’t put up eye-popping numbers, but his defense will be top-notch night after night.
11. Kelly Oubre Jr., SG, Kansas, Freshman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxUCUVYNbhE
Oubre only averaged 9.3 points and five rebounds per game in his lone season with the Jayhawks, but the fact is that he has a natural scoring touch from outside and can also drive to the basket and draw fouls. At 6’7″, 200 pounds, he has the natural build for an NBA shooting guard.
He’ll need to up his effort on defense and improve his mid-range game if he wants to have a ceiling higher than someone who’ll probably end up just a shooter, but he is open to coaching and has a good attitude. He may take a couple of years to hit his stride, but there’s no denying that his talent is there.
12. Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky, Freshman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJXs20WYlWU
At 6’10”, 235 pounds, Lyles has the build of a power forward and the smoothness of a small forward. He can score both under the basket and in the mid-range, and the fact that he only posted 8.7 points and 5.2 rebounds per contest as a freshman does not do his talent justice. If he is drafted into a system that will utilize his strengths and develop his weaknesses with patience, we’re talking about a potential future All-Star.
The only flaws with Lyles are that he is not overly athletic, and his explosiveness and defense are not where they should be for someone his size. That can be fixed with coaching, but it’s still something that teams need to be aware of before deciding that he is the man they want to draft. On the whole, however, his ability to produce offense both inside and outside should keep his stock high.
13. Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin, Junior
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-jfJSFInqE
I look at Sam Dekker, and I see Chandler Parsons. He isn’t the biggest or strongest guy on the court at 6’9″, 220 pounds, but his versatility on offense and ability to hold his own on defense makes him someone who can constantly frustrate opposing teams. In the NBA, this is only going to help Dekker’s development.
He can dunk, drive the lane, and has a knack for hitting clutch shots. His jumper isn’t bad either. This young man averaged 19.2 points per game and shot an eye-popping 58 percent from the field and 43 percent from downtown in the NCAA tournament. If that isn’t an indication of his excellent motor, then I don’t know what is.
Long story short, Dekker is going to have an incredibly bright NBA future and if he were maybe two inches taller and 20 pounds heavier, we could be talking about a Top 10 pick.
14. Frank Kaminsky, C, Wisconsin, Senior
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1v3rRyE2iE
Mark my words. Frank Kaminsky is the sleeper of this year’s NBA draft. The seven-footer may seem a bit small at just 237 pounds, but his determination is through the roof and he can contribute on offense in a multitude of ways, be it under the basket or from beyond the arc. In his senior season, he averaged 18.8 points, 8.2 rebounds and even 1.5 blocks per game while shooting 55 percent from the field and 42 percent from beyond the arc.
Of course, a lot of Kaminsky’s success in college can be attributed to Badgers coach Bo Ryan’s swing offense. He won’t be playing that system in the NBA, so there is going to be the concern that he won’t be able to keep up with bigger and stronger players, not to mention get eaten alive on defense.
But that doesn’t take away from the fact that Kaminsky has a great head on his shoulders and will play any role on the court. We’re talking about a player who went from being a benchwarmer his freshman year to Naismith Player of the Year as a senior, so he has a great shot at having a similar path in the pros. He may not seem like an All-Star now, but check back on his progress in a couple of years.
15. Myles Turner, C, Texas, Freshman
Turner has the size for his position at 6’11”, 240 pounds, and his 7’4″ wingspan ensures that he has the potential to be a top shot blocker on the NBA level. In his lone season with the Longhorns, he averaged 10.4 points, 6.4 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game.
However, in spite of his strengths, Turner is not overly athletic and will need to hit the weight room to improve his strength and conditioning if he wants to avoid constant injury. If he shows up to training camp in better shape, he’ll have every opportunity to crack the rotation and become a force in the paint. It may take time, but he has the talent and his wingspan will only help him as he further develops.
16. Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State, Sophomore
Payne is a player who I’m sure to get a lot of flack for having this low on my first big board, and I’ll say this. I really hope I do another one where he’s higher. Here’s a player who starred at a smaller program like Murray State, averaging 20.6 points, six assists and 1.9 steals his sophomore season, and we’ve seen players like former Weber State Wildcat Damian Lillard come out of non-power conference programs and see great success on the NBA level.
I honestly think that Payne can follow the same path and see the same success as Lillard, but he won’t be able to do so unless he relies less on his jump shot. He made 45.6 percent of his shot attempts this year and 37.7 percent of his threes, but 6.4 of his 15.3 field goal attempts per game came from downtown. It’s not like he’s so trigger happy that half his shots come from three-point land, but most NBA teams play at a slower pace than the college ranks and he’ll need to adjust accordingly.
If he can simplify his game and improve his shot selection, the sky’s the limit for Payne.
17. Jerian Grant, SG, Notre Dame, Senior
Grant has the size of an NBA shooting guard at 6’5″, 202 pounds, and was averaging 19 points per game as a junior before sitting out the second half of the year due to academic issues. He took a step back as a senior, posting just 16.5 points per contest, and his 3P% dropped from 41 to 31.
Just the same, this young man is a scoring machine and once he is taught to be more patient on the court and get more conservative with his shot selection, he’ll have all the skills necessary to be a go-to scorer. He won’t necessarily be elite, but he’ll still be able to get the job done and be a name in the NBA.
18. Montrezl Harrell, F, Louisville, Junior
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io-dBFUDCGI
Harrell averaged 15.7 points and 9.2 rebounds per game as a junior, and earned a reputation as an explosive dunking machine for the Cardinals, and he is definitely a strong enough athlete that he can be a fine interior presence in the NBA.
However, those expecting Harrell to be the same monster of a player he was in school will be in for a rude awakening. He will definitely succeed in the NBA, but is a bit undersized for power forward at just 6’8″, 240 pounds. Depending on which team drafts him, he may very well have to learn a new position. Regardless of that, he has a fine motor and once he improves his mid-range game and realizes that he can’t just live under the glass, he can become a solid forward at either the 3 or 4.
19. Tyus Jones, PG, Duke, Freshman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTymCx7OcGY
At just 6’1″, 190 pounds, Jones does not look intimidating as a player. That is, until you learn that he averaged 11.8 points and 5.6 assists per contest as a freshman and was named the NCAA Tournament’s Most Outstanding Player after helping lead Duke to a championship.
The hardest thing about determining Jones’ draft stock is figuring out just what role he’ll play in the NBA. He isn’t a particularly strong athlete, and his shooting can be a bit streaky. However, this writer puts a lot of value on scrappiness and when it comes to Jones, he’ll have plenty of it. He WILL find a way to have a successful NBA career, even if he has to fight and claw his way down the path.
20. Kevon Looney, F, UCLA, Freshman
I look at Looney and I see a less explosive Josh Smith. He is an excellent contributor on both ends of the court, and he just plays with the type of passion that screams, “I can do anything if I set my mind to it, and NOBODY is going to stand in my way.”
He averaged 11.6 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, and was instrumental in helping the Bruins reach the Sweet Sixteen, averaging 9.7 boards in the big dance. Looney will need to improve his upper body strength if he’s going to contend in the rebounding department in the NBA, and he’ll also need to be faster in the scoring game. If he can improve those skills, he’ll easily be an athletic forward that plays with high intensity that coaches dream of.
21. Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky, Freshman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkoA1hWlo1o
If you’re looking for the best shooter in the draft, Booker is the man. With the poise and ease with which he makes threes, he might as well be a hired gun rather than a basketball prospect. He averaged 10 points per game and shot 41 percent from long range for the Wildcats in his freshman year: AS A BENCH PLAYER. Had he stayed in school for another year, chances are he would have become one of the top scorers on the collegiate level.
But Booker is in this year’s draft class and while he may be on the low end of this big board, don’t let that give you doubts. This young man can score in a deadly fashion and once you throw in the fact that he can also drive the lane incredibly well, he becomes one of the most exciting prospects of this year’s class.
22. Delon Wright, G, Utah, Senior
If teams are looking for a guard with an intelligent scoring eye and can drive the lane quickly, Wright is their man late in the first round. He averaged 14.5 points, 5.1 assists and 2.1 steals on 51 percent shooting for the Utes last season, and he projects as a solid role player in the NBA.
Wright is never going to be a strong jump-shooter, nor will he turn heads with his scoring ability. Where he’ll make his bones is as a solid defender and guy who can score on an as-needed basis. That is not at all a bad thing and while he probably won’t ever be elite, he’ll still manage to be clutch on defense and make shots when called upon.
23. Terry Rozier, G, Louisville, Sophomore
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJeBIh96YRc
Though he’s only 6’1″, 190 pounds, Rozier scores points with the tenacity of someone bigger. As a sophomore, he led the Cardinals in scoring (17.1 PPG) and also chipped in 5.3 rebounds and two steals per contest.
The biggest question mark with him is his shot selection, as he shot just 41 percent from the field in two seasons playing for Rick Pitino. He doesn’t have tons confidence in his ability to score while driving to the basket (though he does it quite well when not in traffic), so he tends to rely heavily on mid-range jumpers and threes for most of his scoring output. Once he can up his strength inside and learn to slow down his pace a bit, then he can easily become a fine scoring point guard.
24. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, F, Arizona, Sophomore
Hollis-Jefferson proved to be a great overall defender in two years at Arizona, posting 11.2 points and 6.8 rebounds per game as a sophomore. Now that he’s headed to the NBA, his 6’7″, 220 pound frame should be something of a reality check.
Hollis-Jefferson will need to realize that unless he becomes as athletic as Kenneth Faried overnight, he won’t be a dominant interior presence on the professional level. Rather, he’ll likely be a phenomenal on-ball defender who can also hold his own on offense. Once he can improve his jump shot and be more than just a paint scorer, he will be a complete player.
25. Christian Wood, PF, UNLV, Sophomore
How Wood managed to fly under so many radars is beyond me. He has size at 6’11”, 220 pounds, and averaged 15.7 points, 10 boards and 2.7 blocks per game for the Runnin’ Rebels as a sophomore.
Wood is going to need to bulk up to succeed as a professional, and he’ll need to up his low post game so that he’s more than just a big body that can swat balls away on defense or just receive balls up high on offense and put in garbage shots. Once he shies away from the mid-range jumpers and desperate hooks, he can easily become one of the most underrated big men of his draft class.
26. Jarell Martin, PF, LSU, Sophomore
At 6’10”, 242 pounds, Martin certainly has NBA size. He posted a team-best 16.9 points for the Tigers his sophomore year, and also chipped in 9.2 rebounds per game.
A phenomenal dunker, Martin is a great vertical player who run sup and down the court well and has the size to play the 4 in the NBA. The problem is that so much of his offense comes from rising up for dunks and maybe the occasional jumper. If he’s going to take his game to the next level, he’ll need to develop low post presence. Still, he is an absolute beast above the rim and if there’s one guy in this year’s draft class I would pick to win a Slam Dunk Contest, it would be Martin.
27. Norman Powell, SG, UCLA, Senior
At 6’4″, 215 pounds, Powell is probably the best slashing guard in the draft. He averaged 16.4 points per contest his senior year, and drives the lane with ease. He has also proven to be an excellent dunker and defender.
All that Powell really needs to do is improve his mid and long range shooting, and he’ll become a complete guard. It can be fixed with coaching, but the more he learns to not rely so much on driving the lane the better, as he’ll get eaten alive there in the pros.
28. Jordan Mickey, F, LSU, Sophomore
Mickey is only 6’8″, 235 pounds, but his numbers suggest those of someone over seven feet tall. He put up averages of 15.4 points, 9.9 rebounds and an eye-popping 3.6 blocks per game last season, the last stat being tops in the nation.
But just where will he fit in the NBA? He’s too small to play power forward, and doesn’t really have strong wing capabilities. Just the same, he has great length and did a lot of work to become LSU’s go-to scorer as a sophomore. Once he improves his strength and develops a low post game, he can easily become a dominant presence on both ends of the floor.
29. Justin Anderson, SG, Virginia, Junior
The definition of a swingman, Anderson is probably the best ATHLETE in the entire draft. He can score, keep up with faster players, and can even hold his own in the rebounding department despite being just 6’6″, 227 pounds.
Once he’s drafted, the first thing coaches will have him work on is his shot selection, as about half of his field goal attempts last season were from long range. Granted, he shot 45 percent from beyond the arc, but he’ll need to work on getting himself open more on his own and driving the lane at a slower pace if he wants to be a scoring threat.
Other than that, his all-around game will only help him in the NBA and he is sure to find some role to play on whichever team drafts him.
30. Chris McCullough, F, Syracuse, Freshman
McCullough has size at 6’10”, 220 pounds, and a 7’2.5″ wingspan that immediately makes him someone who can be a great shot blocker in the NBA. He posted 9.3 points and 6.9 rebounds to go with 2.1 blocks per contest while with the Orange, and can also hit the occasional jump shot on top of being a solid interior presence.
Once this young man bulks up a bit and develops a low-post game, not to mention is more aggressive going up for a rebound, he can easily be a reliable big man on the defensive end of the court.
