First 5 CFB Coaches Likely To Be Fired in 2024

With college football starting in two months, some head coaches are feeling the heat. Coaches like Mario Cristobal, Ryan Day, and Lincoln Riley are under pressure but might still see their teams win 10 games this season. They’re on the hot seat, but not as much as these other coaches.

For various reasons, five Power Four coaches are in a tougher spot. It seems likely that 2024 will be their last season. Whether it’s inconsistency, winning with another coach’s players, or never getting off the ground, I doubt all five will be coaching in 2025.

Predicting when an underperforming coach will get fired is tough. I’ll try to get ahead of this by looking at their schedules. Maybe one or two survive the season, but maybe not.

Let’s start with a guy who has ACC roots but has struggled to lift his team.

Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott

In his first two seasons, Tony Elliott has gone a disastrous 6-16 (3-12). Despite handling tragic events well in year one, UVA was arguably the worst team in the ACC last year at 3-9 (2-6). They need to win at least four or five games to show improvement.

Looking at Virginia’s 2024 schedule reveals four guaranteed losses: Louisville, Clemson, Notre Dame, and SMU. The other eight games are winnable: Richmond, Wake Forest, Maryland, Coastal Carolina, Boston College, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Virginia Tech. They need to split those eight to go 4-8 for Elliott to have any shot at keeping his job.

A road loss at Pitt after a bye could spell trouble for Elliott. But it all comes down to their rivalry game with Virginia Tech at season’s end. If they lose badly, I can’t see Elliott returning for a fourth year after leading three sub-.500 teams.

Exit light for Elliott. Enter Sandman.

If UVA goes 4-8 with another loss to emerging ACC power Virginia Tech, that will be it for Elliott.

South Carolina Gamecocks head coach Shane Beamer

Man, is South Carolina’s SEC slate brutal or what? While there are three wins to be had in non-conference play (Old Dominion, Akron, Wofford), Clemson looms large at the end of the season. What if South Carolina only wins a game or two in conference play this year?

Looking at South Carolina’s 2024 schedule shows three certain SEC losses: LSU, Ole Miss, and Alabama. At Vanderbilt is probably a win; the other four games are up in the air: Kentucky, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Missouri. The Gamecocks need to go bowling but feel closer to a 4-8 team than a 6-6 one.

The earliest Beamer could get fired is after losing to Mizzou at home and falling to something like 3-7. Wins over Old Dominion, Akron and Vanderbilt might not save him if they only have Wofford and Clemson left.

Going 6-6 with a competitive showing vs. Clemson might be just enough to save Beamer’s job.

Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda

When I mentioned a coach winning with someone else’s players, I meant Dave Aranda at Baylor. He won big with Matt Rhule’s guys in 2021 but has since stumbled. The Bears are now bottom-tier Big 12 material.

Looking at Baylor’s 2024 schedule includes ten Big 12 opponents plus Utah out of conference—a likely loss for Baylor. Seven or eight wins might be needed for Aranda to keep his job.

Their first four games (Tarleton State, Utah, Air Force, Colorado) should go 3-1 with a loss to Utah. In their final eight games: losses at Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Kansas seem probable. A bad home loss to TCU on Nov. 2 could be Aranda’s end or maybe two weeks later at West Virginia.

Since there’s no Thanksgiving Weekend rivalry game for Baylor—an axing may come sooner.

Arkansas Razorbacks head coach Sam Pittman

I have to be honest: how sure are we that Arkansas will win an SEC game? Pittman is sweating on the hot seat in Fayetteville despite restoring some pride briefly. This season could get ugly fast.

Looking at Arkansas’ 2024 schedule includes playing Oklahoma State in non-conference—a likely loss before SEC play starts. If they go 3-1 non-conference (wins over UAPB, UAB and Louisiana Tech), can they find three SEC wins?

At Auburn and Mississippi State are winnable SEC games; they could win both but need more wins elsewhere—Texas A&M or Missouri perhaps? But beating Tennessee, LSU or Texas seems unlikely.

Pittman losing to Texas mid-November might mark his last game as head coach.

Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier

It feels like a dead-on-arrival season for Billy Napier with virtually no chance of keeping his job at Florida—the hardest schedule I’ve ever seen! Georgia-Texas-LSU-Ole Miss back-to-back-to-back-to-back before ending with Florida State.

Looking at Florida’s 2024 schedule shows they also face Miami and UCF out-of-conference besides Florida State—UCF might be winnable; beating Miami is crucial for Napier’s chances—is even going 6-6 possible?

Their easiest non-conference game is Samford; most winnable SEC games: Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Kentucky—Florida needs all four plus Miami/UCF wins for any shot at bowl eligibility; stealing one vs Tennessee might help too—this feels like a potential 3-9 team seeing Napier out before Thanksgiving Day.

Napier could be done as early as another loss against Georgia in Jacksonville.

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