“Elimination Saturday” has to start somewhere, and what better place to start it than Norman, Oklahoma? The 7-1 Baylor Bears travel north to take on the 6-2 Oklahoma Sooners for an early Noon ET kickoff on Fox Sports 1.
These two schools have met on the gridiron 23 times in their histories, with Oklahoma going 21-2 in the series. However, those two Baylor wins have come over the course of the last three seasons, but both of those wins came in Waco.
Baylor and Oklahoma are each coming off of dominating performances last week against lesser competition. Baylor rolled over Kansas 60-14, while Oklahoma went to Iowa State and trounced the Cyclones 59-14.
This is Baylor’s final road game of the season, and it is certainly the most important. After losing at West Virginia a couple of weeks ago, a lot of people seemed to have written off Baylor’s chances to make the College Football Playoff. But with everyone else in front of them falling by the wayside, would a one-loss Baylor team really be left out of the four-team playoff? Especially with Oklahoma and No. 7 Kansas State left on the schedule?
Even with a lingering back injury and inconsistent play, Bryce Petty is making the Bears the nation’s top-rated offense, both in yards and points. It’s kind of amazing that Baylor is still moving the ball so well, considering Petty is only completing 54.8% of his passes, which ranks 94th nationally.
The Big 12’s leading rusher resides in Waco as well. Shock Linwood is averaging 97.1 rushing yards per game, and has 10 scores on the ground. Bryce Petty has two go-to receivers in KD Cannon and Antwan Goodley, both of whom are averaging over 80 receiving yards per game.
The Sooners are no slouches themselves on the offensive side of the ball, led by Katy Perry’s crush Trevor Knight. OU is 8th in the country in points per game, and 18th in total yards. The Big 12’s second-leading rusher is Oklahoma’s Samaje Perine, who is posting 95.9 yards per game, just 1.2 behind Linwood. Junior receiver Sterling Shepard is third in the nation with his 119.6 receiving yards per game. Shepard left the Iowa State game after the team’s first offensive play with a strained groin, but OU head coach Bob Stoops said that he’ll be a game-time decision. If Shepard is unable to go, Durron Neal would likely become the first option at wideout.
Oklahoma and Baylor are nearly-identical in points allowed per game this year as well (Oklahoma – 21.8; Baylor – 21.9). The surprising thing here may be the success that Baylor’s defense is having this year. The Bears are 17th nationally in total defense, including being ranked 8th in rushing defense. Compare that to Oklahoma, who currently sits at 57th in the country in total defense.
Also contributing to Baylor’s 7-1 mark is their turnover differential. They have a +8 turnover margin this season, which is 10th in the FBS. Only TCU has a better margin in the Big 12.
The way that Oklahoma takes down Baylor is by having its passing defense step up to the plate. These teams are very similar in almost all the categories expect passing defense. The Sooners are 105th in the country, allowing over 265 yards per game. With this below-average defense, Bryce Petty should be able to take advantage, and the Baylor offense should roll through OU.
But Baylor also has yet to prove it can win the big road game. Case in point: the West Virginia game this year. Last year, the Bears’ only regular season loss happened at Oklahoma State. The only loss to Oklahoma the last three years? On the road. This is the sort of game, for whatever reason, Baylor loses. Until they can prove otherwise, Baylor will always be that electrifying team that falls apart once or twice a year on the road.
They have the opportunity to change that perception this weekend in Norman, and keep themselves squarely in the conversation for a College Football Playoff berth.
*Section Photo credit to Ronald Martinez, Getty Images; Featured Photo (above) credit to Casey Sapio, USA Today Sports
