As the college football season looms closer, it’s hard not to look into our crystal balls and ask the pressing questions. Who will win big? Who will underperform? Who will surprise? Who has potential?
Here is who I think will be the last four teams standing in the Big 12 when December comes around.
4. Texas Christian Horned Frogs
Why they’ll finish No. 4 – With the implementation of the Air-Raid by co-offensive coordinators Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie, the offense will be simpler and faster. Both Meacham and Cumbie are schooled in the up-tempo nature, and they have the perfect quarterback to put up points on the board from the pocket. Texas A&M transfer Matt Joeckel hasn’t been named the starter, but he has experience in a similar system from his time with the Aggies. TCU lost four games by three points or fewer in 2013. Now, with an adapted offense designed to score lots of TDs, the Horned Frogs are closer to eight wins than people think.
Why they won’t finish No. 4 – The skepticism towards the defensive line is not solely based on the departure of Devonte Fields, even though his absence will hurt. The production from the line shouldn’t change too much from 2013. Fields suffered a season ending foot injury in early October, so the defense is used to being without Fields. The problem lays in the amount of depth at their disposal. Three starters return on the line from a unit that led the Big 12 in rushing defense a year ago, but replacing Fields will require junior Mike Tuauato, who was a reserve for the interior of the line, to spend more time on the outside as a starter.
3. Kansas State Wildcats
Why they’ll finish No. 3 – This may sound odd, but the strength of the K-State offense will be in the air. We have grown accustomed to associating the Wildcats as a run first squad, but with a returning quarterback who improved mightily in his final four games and one of the best receivers in the nation, the Cats would be foolish not to pass first. Jake Waters won’t find praise for his completion percentage in the final four games in 2013, but he only threw four picks and the team went 3-1. WR Tyler Lockett will be Waters’ No. 1 option and should gain well over 1,000 yards, while making defensive backs in the conference look silly.
Why they won’t finish No. 3 – It’s true the Wildcats are fortunate enough to have a top receiver to lean on. The problem will be finding a difference maker outside of Lockett. That’s not to say Curry Sexton and Kyle Klein can’t step up and use their athletic ability to create plays, but that would require the action, not just the hope of potential.
2. Oklahoma Sooners
Why they’ll finish No. 2 – This offensive line is the best in the Big 12. Yes, making the claim “if” all five starters remain healthy is cliche, but be that as it may, it’s a key factor. Behind a healthy offensive line, Trevor Knight will be allowed to unleash his incredibly balanced skill set against opponents, with plenty of time to allow a young receiving corps to operate in the open field.
Why they won’t finish No. 2 – Much like K-State, the Sooners have a group of unproven receivers who could do some damage in 2014, but we just don’t know at this point. The recent news of Dorial Green-Beckham’s wavier request denial certainly hurts the passing game, but how much? Sterling Shepard is the only proven target (51 receptions, 603 yards and seven TDs in 2013). The rest of Knight’s potential targets combined for 17 receptions to go along with 228 yards last season.
1. Baylor Bears
Why they’ll finish No. 1 – There is no better offense in the conference. The Bears’ offense returns Heisman favorite Bryce Petty (4,200 yards and 32 touchdowns in 2013) as well as his top receivers from a year ago, Antwan Goodley and Levi Norwood. Don’t think for a second the Baylor rushing attack will suffer without Lache Seastrunk. Sophomore Shock Linwood will headline a good rotation of running backs who will once again keep the rushing attack near the top nationally. Last season, the offense slowed down a bit after facing tougher defenses, but still managed to finish atop of the nation by a wide margin in total offense.
Why they won’t finish No. 1 – The complete turnaround on defense from 2012 to 2013 was remarkable. Defensive coordinator Phil Bennett brought the Bears from one of the nation’s worst units in 2012 to one of the best in the conference in 2013. This season, the Baylor defensive front six is loaded and ready to punish Big 12 quarterbacks, with linebacker Bryce Hager as the anchor in the middle. But the defensive backfield is a little thin, as the unit will be going through an overhaul. In a conference that produces some of the most talented quarterbacks in the country, that’s never a good sign. There’s talent and potential with Xavien Howard and Terrence Singleton, but for now they’re a question mark.
*Section Photo credit to Andy Lyons, Getty Images; Featured Photo (above) credit to Bleacher Report
