The Heisman Trophy is the most prestigious individual award in all of college sports. Fans and media spend a good portion of the offseason and during the season obsessing over which player will go to New York and collect the hardware.
Is the Heisman Trophy overrated? No, but it’s probably overvalued. The Heisman certainly doesn’t equate to professional football success, so let’s take it for what it is – a great college football award.
What’s interesting is that in recent years the preseason Heisman favorite almost never wins, and is rarely a finalist. The winner usually comes from seemingly nowhere and if you need proof, just look at the last five winners of the award- Jameis Winston (freshman), Johnny Manziel (freshman), Robert Griffin III (junior), Cam Newton (JC transfer) and Mark Ingram (sophomore).
We’re going to put our best foot forward and try to predict this year’s Heisman.
Best guess: Braxton Miller, QB, Ohio State
Why he can win: Perfect system for his skill set, good set of receivers and a soft schedule where his team will be favored in every game. Also, there may be a strong push for a senior to win after two straight freshmen took home the honor.
What can cost him the award: Injuries; a notch in the L column. Miller missed time last season which potentially cost him a trip to New York in an otherwise great year.
Other Contenders:
Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Why he can win: Great system, great player, leader, and plays for a top five team.
What can cost him the award: Ability to stay healthy; receivers. Mariota will be playing with new receivers and the Ducks will probably be more run oriented. He was headed for the award last season before his knee injury.
Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
Why he can win: Most outstanding player in the nation, soft schedule.
What can cost him the award: Off the field issues; the fact he won the award last year means he’s being held up to a greater standard than anyone statistically, a loss or possibly even a close win.
Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor
Why he can win: Stat-driven offense, solid schedule, on the radar from last year.
What can cost him the award: He has to play very well in every game, no off weeks. Tough road games; team can’t lose twice.
Off the Grid
Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
Why he can win: The best running back in the best conference in America. With Aaron Murray gone, Georgia will depend more on the run.
What can cost him the award: Injuries, team success, super-stats. Gurley may need to get close to 2,000 yards to really stand out.
Mike Davis, RB, South Carolina
Why he can win: Explosive running back, great conference, will have team success, main weapon on offense.
What can cost him the award: Injuries; Steve Spurrier’s play-calling; Todd Gurley being better.
Dylan Thompson, QB, South Carolina
Why he can win: Talented quarterback in the best conference in America.
What can cost him the award: He’s not the best player on his own offense, team will have to win the SEC East.
Maty Mauk, QB, Missouri
Why he can win: Very talented quarterback in the best conference in America. Will put up some stats and has privilege of lower expectations to excel than some of his conference counterparts.
What can cost him the award: Questionable receivers now that Dorial Green-Beckham is gone. Team will likely lose some games because of that. (Not everyone in the SEC can win every game)
Trevor Knight, QB, Oklahoma
Why he can win: Extremely talented, will have team success, good offensive line.
What can cost him the award: Inexperienced, lost some receiver talent, will have to put up super-stats in an balanced offense.
Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA
Why he can win: Ultra talented, plays in a tough conference, name recognition.
What can cost him the award: Very difficult schedule, better quarterback in his conference in Marcus Mariota, lost his best receiver.
Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
Why he can win: Most talented wide receiver in the nation, plays in the best conference in America, will win plenty of games.
What can cost him the award: New quarterback, run heavy offense.
